Herman Cain?s rivals scrambled Saturday to start picking up his support ? though most analysts expect Newt Gingrich to be the biggest beneficiary.
Gingrich has replaced Cain as the latest anti-establishment frontrunner, thanks to his surging popularity with many of the same tea party backers who?d flocked to the former Godfather?s Pizza CEO. With Cain promising that he?ll make an endorsement in the race, his years-long friendship with Gingrich could give the former House speaker a leg up ? and if he gets it, an important boost going into the last month before the Iowa caucuses.
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Already, according to a Public Policy Polling average of surveys in eight states released earlier this week, 38 percent of Cain backers listed Gingrich as their second choice.
?Cain?s supporters absolutely love Gingrich,? PPP pollster Tom Jensen wrote on his blog this week. ?And they absolutely hate Mitt Romney.?
But Romney ? who tied with Michele Bachmann as the second choice of 13 percent of Cain supporters in that PPP survey average ? may get a boost as well. Before the scandals overtook Cain?s campaign, Romney often remarked on how they were both appealing to voters eager to see business experience to the White House.
Plus, with one fewer candidate who?d been drawing anti-Romney sentiment in the race, Cain?s departure might give the establishment candidate a chance to coalesce more support.
That?s how Romney?s campaign has tried to play the development, predicting earlier this week as Cain?s departure became clearer that the former Massachusetts governor will pick up a significant portion of Cain?s support.
?We?ve always been everybody?s second choice,? a Romney strategist said. ?Go back to the ABC-Washington Post poll, right when Palin and Christie didn?t get in. The second choice for Palin voters was Romney. ? I imagine Romney would get more than anybody else from Cain. Sure he would.?
Mickey Carroll, the director of the Quinnipiac Polling Institute, agreed that Romney stands to benefit from the dispersion of Cain supporters.
?They?ll go to whoever is the next flavor of the month,? Carroll said. ?Couple of months ago it would have been Christie, before that it would have been Bachmann. And they?ll probably wind up with Romney unless something happens.?
Michele Bachmann and Rick Perry, though, could both regain some of the anti-establishment, anti-Romney and anti-Washington support they had earlier in the race, before being supplanted by Cain. In Iowa, where they?re both in need of strong performances, there are a lot of former Cain fans to pick up.
Bachmann was also the second choice of 13 percent of Cain supporters in the PPP survey average, while Perry was at 11 percent.
Indeed, immediately after Cain left the stage in Atlanta on Saturday, Perry?s media coordinator, Will Franklin, invited supporters to join the Perry campaign via Twitter.
?I would urge any Cain fans looking for a true outsider with a solid conservative record and a clear vision for America to give Perry a look,? Franklin wrote.
Dave Funk, the co-chairman of the Polk County, Iowa, GOP, said while he expects about half of Cain?s support going to Gingrich, though Rick Perry?s organization been working hard to court Cain?s Iowa staff and influential supporters in the state.
That squares with results earlier this week from Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer, who said Gingrich and Perry will be the chief beneficiaries of Cain?s departure.
?They are working very rapidly,? Funk said.
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